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Fuzzy Monte Carlo method for probability of capsizing calculation using regular and non-regular wave

HYDRONAV’10
Centrum Techniki Okrętowej, Gdańsk 2010

Tomasz Hinz
Polski Rejestr Statków S.A., Gdańsk
Email: rb@prs.pl

Fuzzy Monte Carlo method for probability of capsizing calculation using regular and non-regular wave

Currently, research centres from all over the world (Italy, Greece, Japan, USA, Germany) are working on a new generation of stability regulations. IMO proposed to focus on three main scenarios of ship capsizing. One of these scenarios refers to Dead Ship Condition. The new regulations are to be of a probabilistic nature. To achieve this, it will be necessary to create appropriate methods for determining the probability of ship capsizing or the probability of loss of stability (LOSA – loss of stability accident).
In order to calculate the risk of ship capsizing it is necessary to build a mathematical model of ship motion. One of the exiting models, which was developed in Finland at Aalto University in Espoo, is called LAIDYN.
This article presents one of the methods used to assess LOSA probability. This method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation with the application of the fuzzy number method. In the ship’s motion model both regular and irregular waves are considered.

Keywords: capsizing, dead ship condition, Monte Carlo